The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are forums for trading contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of uncertain events. There is mounting evidence that such markets can help to produce forecasts of event outcomes with a lower prediction error than conventional forecasting methods. -”The Promise of Prediction Markets,” K.J. Arrow, et al., Science, May 16, 2008 The […]


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Bitcoin, Truthcoin, and Augur

How does one introduce a decentralized application, such as Augur, without first discussing Bitcoin? It’s impossible. However, understanding Bitcoin is not something that occurs over night, or even after attending a lecture or two. It is an intellectual undertaking that requires several stages of thought to understand: What is a “bit coin?” Internet money that […]

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